The Web Is Dead? No. Experts expect apps and the Web to converge in the cloud and say simplicity for users will come at a cost. Survey聽reveals hopes, fears.
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As the mobile Internet boom really took hold in 2010, Wired magazine editor Chris Anderson proposed in a cover story dramatically headlined聽The Web Is Dead聽that the World Wide Web was 鈥渋n decline鈥 due to apps鈥 ascendance. Today, experts say the Web is thriving and HTML5 and cloud computing and 鈥渁ppification鈥 will keep the Web highly viable, but some warn that by 2020 the Web, while more attractive and convenient, will be more closed and excessively monetized, with negative results.
鈥淕iant interests will push every button they can: fear, inexperience, passivity, and willingness to be entertained. We鈥檒l get a cleaned-up world that we can be perfectly billed for,鈥 said Harvard professor聽Susan Crawford, founder of OneWebDay and former Obama White House technology policy staff leader.
In a Pew Internet/51爆料网 survey of more than 1,000 Internet experts, researchers, observers and users, a majority expressed either hope or confidence that between now and 2020 most people will continue to work, play, communicate and create content primarily on the open Web rather than shifting to the use of narrowly focused apps as the gateway for most of their Internet activities.
While 59% agreed with the statement that the Web will remain the dominant space for 2020 users to access and share information online, a number of survey participants said the Web and apps will merge in an evolution that has not only positives but many negative implications for the future.
鈥淭hey said the Web and apps are merging online in various forms as people come to depend on mobile devices and access to tools and stored data in 鈥榯he cloud鈥 鈥 on remote servers,” said聽Janna Anderson, director of Elon鈥檚 Imagining the Internet Center and a co-author of the study. 鈥淭hey expressed concerns about the powerful forces that are working to monetize as many aspects of the Web as possible and said developers are focused on moving away from open protocols and information to primarily emphasize a closed, secure system where people can take profits.
鈥淭hey said apps鈥 tremendous ability to meet specific needs becomes a double-edged sword 鈥 apps simplify life but they also create 鈥榳alled gardens鈥 and a lack of serendipity.鈥
According to these experts, HTML 5 is expected to continue to add a greater degree of functionality and relevancy to the Web. 鈥淢any experts predicted the cloud will dominate, the Web is the best place to develop and offer special applications and the 鈥榓ppification鈥 of the Web is already well under way,鈥 said聽Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center鈥檚 Internet & American Life Project, a co-author of the study. 鈥淲hile experts expect richer, simpler and more-secure user experiences, some worry that appification, standardization, and regulation could harm communication by 2020.鈥
This is the second report generated out of the results of a Web-based survey fielded in fall 2011. It gathered opinions on eight Internet issues from a select group of experts and the highly engaged Internet public.
(Methodology section is at bottom of page.)
The major findings of the report follow below, on this page.
Experts share their hopes and fears for the future of the Web
OVERVIEW:聽A high-impact cover story in Wired magazine in 2010 asserted in its title:聽The Web Is Dead. Long Live the Internet. 聽Authors Chris Anderson and Michael Wolff argued that the World Wide Web was 鈥渋n decline鈥 and 鈥渁pps鈥 were in ascendance.
This is not just a debate about technology use and which businesses will prevail. It involves different visions of the ways in which people will access information, learn, amuse themselves, and create material with others in the digital era.
Chris Anderson and Wolff stated their case this way:
As much as we love the open, unfettered Web, we鈥檙e abandoning it for simpler, sleeker services that just work 鈥.This is not a trivial distinction. Over the past few years, one of the most important shifts in the digital world has been the move from the wide-open Web to closed platforms that use the Internet for transport but not the browser for display鈥.
Because the screens are smaller, such mobile traffic tends to be driven by specialty software, mostly apps, designed for a single purpose. For the sake of the optimized experience on mobile devices, users forgo the general-purpose browser. They use the Net, but not the Web. Fast beats flexible鈥
This was all inevitable. It is the cycle of capitalism. The story of industrial revolutions, after all, is a story of battles over control. A technology is invented, it spreads, a thousand flowers bloom, and then someone finds a way to own it, locking out others. It happens every time.鈥
The wide-open Web of peer production, the so-called generative Web where everyone is free to create what they want, continues to thrive, driven by the nonmonetary incentives of expression, attention, reputation, and the like. But the notion of the Web as the ultimate marketplace for digital delivery is now in doubt.
They clearly forecast the rise of the mobile Web, but the debate they launched with the apps vs. Web formulation continues. It is in part a debate about the future of the personal computer vs. smaller, portable mobile devices. It is also central to the debate about the environment in which people gather and share information.
Others have shared concerns, including a warning in the December 2011 issue of Scientific American in which Web creator Tim Berners-Lee wrote, 鈥淭he Web as we know it is being threatened,鈥 adding that it 鈥渃ould be broken into fragmented islands.鈥
The trends are quite clear. Mobile tools such as smartphones, tablets, netbooks, and laptop computers are now a primary source of Internet connectivity in highly developed nations, and the uptake of technology tools in less-developed regions of the world has also been dominated by small, wireless devices.
The latest surveys of American adults by the Pew Research Center鈥檚 Internet & American Life Project show that nearly two-thirds connect to the Web via a smartphone, tablet computer, or an on-the-go laptop computer.
According to estimates by Cisco, by 2016 there will be 10 billion mobile Internet devices in use globally. The world population is expected to be 7.3 billion in 2016, so that鈥檚 1.4 devices per person on the planet. Smartphone traffic will grow to 50 times the size it is today by 2016. In fact, Cisco鈥檚 鈥淰isual Networking Index鈥 released in February, reports there will be so much traffic generated between 2015 and 2016 by smartphones, tablets, and laptops that the amount of Internet data movement added for that year alone will be three times the estimated size of the entire mobile Internet in 2012.
The boom in mobile connectivity has been accompanied by a boom in innovation and sales of targeted software applications (apps). Apple鈥檚 iPhone and its App Store debuted in June 2007, the iPad debuted in April 2010. On March 3, Apple announced that 25 billion apps had been downloaded from its store.聽 Similarly, Google鈥檚 Android Market hit 10 billion downloads by December 2011, and users have been downloading apps at a rate of 1 billion a month.
In June of 2011 researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web.聽 The change reflected a 91% increase in time spend with apps between June 2010 and June 2011. In December 2011, the technology forecasting firm The Gartner Group predicted, 鈥淏y 2015 mobile application development projects targeting smartphones and tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratio of 4-to-1. Smartphones and tablets represent more than 90% of the new net growth in device adoption for the coming four years.鈥 Gartner predicts that 1 billion smartphones will be sold in 2014 鈥 about double the number of PCs it expects will be sold that year.
Over the past year a number of prominent technology experts, including Apple CEO Tim Cook, have been proclaiming the focus of software innovation has nearly completely shifted from an emphasis on designing tools for use on full-size personal computers to designing for mobile devices 鈥 especially smartphones and tablets.
The Pew Internet Project and 51爆料网鈥檚 Imagining the Internet Center invited experts and Internet stakeholders to predict where things might be by the end of the decade. They were asked to take sides in the apps vs. Web debate by choosing among alternative visions of where things will stand in 2020. A number of survey participants who are most attuned to the nuances of this particular issue responded that the outcome will be a mix; they said apps and the Web are converging in the cloud. Some argued that the language framing the question did not frame the issue well.聽 While most people agreed with the statement that the Web will generally be stronger than ever by 2020, many who chose that view noted that it is more their hope than their firm prediction. Some 35% disagreed that the Web would be in better shape, and a number of survey participants said the outcome will be a combination of both scenarios.
Where will we be by 2020?
Respondents to the 51爆料网-Pew Internet survey were presented with two potential 2020 scenarios – one in which the Web retains its “open” qualities and popularity, and one in which most online work, play, communication and content creation is completed through apps. They were asked to choose the most likely outcome and were asked, 鈥淲ill the Amazon, Apple, Google model of apps, app stores, and controlled devices dominate to the point of diminishing the importance and utility of the open Web by 2020? What are the positives, negatives, and shades of grey in the likely future you anticipate?鈥 This yielded an outpouring of opinion about the likely future. Following is a sampling of predictions and arguments gleaned as a briefing from the 1,000 responses, organized under topic headings based on analysis.
A case is made聽for the Web’s continued success
鈥 The robust nature of the Web鈥檚 architecture and the appeal of the diversity of the Web will not go away, even as economic imperatives push towards Apps. 鈥淭he World Wide Web may evolve significantly, but the core design of open and scalable will make it the compelling solution,鈥 wrote聽Robert Cannon, senior counsel for Internet law for the Federal Communications Commission. This is the way that聽Allison Mankin, a computer-networking expert formerly with the National Science Foundation, puts it: 鈥淓conomic forces and our tendency to prefer smaller pictures lead to a view that there will be consolidation and apps will dominate, but in the big picture, I cannot see the highly diverse, millions to billions of destinations going away. The ability of the Net to accommodate unlimited diversity will continue and therefore there will be an open Web, never fully open because there are many competing forces, but diversified and fast-moving, as a reflection of human society鈥檚 restless character.鈥
鈥 The more blunt version of that verdict comes from聽Jeff Jarvis, blogger and City University of New York professor: 鈥淭he browser鈥攐r its future equivalent鈥攚ill continue to have key advantages over apps. They are connected to the entire Net, they offer full interoperability, and they give the user more power than the developer or publisher. Yes, publishers have dreamed that apps would return to them the control of content, experience, business model, and pricing that the Net took from them, but they are merely deluding themselves. The value is not in their control of content but in the ability to become platforms for users to do what they want to do.鈥
鈥 鈥淭he gated bubble worlds formed by app markets, Facebook, and other private spaces will bloom and fade, while people will keep gathering in the open spaces.鈥 鈥聽Jerry Michalski, founder of Relationship Economy Expedition and consultant at the Institute for the Future
New information protocols will ease the Web experience and also change it
鈥 Web evolution to HTML5 protocols and beyond will build upon its relevancy and functionality. HTML5 is the latest version of the HyperText Markup Language used to create web pages. The term is most often used to refer to what is actually a suite of approaches (including HTML5, CSS, SVG, WOFF, and others) that Web architects use to orchestrate interactive text, graphics, video, audio and other elements on Web pages. The evolution to HTML5 is allowing people to create more dynamic Web content, making it possible to write browser-accessible Web apps that are as appealing and interactive as the device-specific apps so popular now on smartphones and tablets. The newest versions of browsers, including Firefox, Internet Explorer, and Safari, can easily read HTML5 pages without using 鈥減lug ins鈥 which can sometimes cause usability problems. While it is still under development, it is being actively deployed; broad interoperability for the full suite is targeted for 2014. HTML5 is particularly helpful for rendering Web content that looks great on PCs and mobile devices, A number of key analysts pin their hopes on that. 鈥淗TML5 is going to make the Web very attractive,鈥 said聽Hal Varian, chief economist at Google. Adds聽Rob Scott, chief technology officer for Nokia: 鈥淥nce HTML5 browsers and fully capable Web runtimes are in place on the common Kindle through iPhone, the Web app will begin replacing native apps.鈥
鈥 Consumer perceptions will shape the future. As聽Alexandra Samuel, director of the Social + Interactive Media Centre at Emily Carr University, framed it: 鈥淭he real question is whether consumers will perceive those HTML5-based apps as part of the Web. What is worrying is a landscape in which so many people interact with the Web through these tiny little pinholes created by individual apps. If users鈥 experience of the Web is largely through the lens of their apps, will they still perceive themselves as users of the Web? Will they feel like they have a stake in Web standards, access, interoperability, and Net neutrality? Given how hard it is to engage today鈥檚 users in these issues, it鈥檚 hard to see how people who have grown up or lived behind the app wall will really feel connected to the Web as a whole.鈥
鈥 The Web and apps are merging online in various forms as people come to depend upon remote access to information and tools in 鈥渢he cloud鈥濃 that is, on remote servers. 鈥淭he experience when you visit a webpage and the experience when using an app will converge, possibly to the point where there is little practical difference,鈥 argued聽Mark Watson, senior engineer for Netflix.聽Jeffrey Alexander, senior technology analyst at SRI International, said, 鈥淚n general the Web will come to resemble a segment within the 鈥榓pp economy鈥 more than the reverse. The current incarnation of the Web will continue to be important for certain kinds of human-computer interaction, particularly those that require sustained attention and a richer media experience. However, the rise of cloud computing infrastructure means that apps will have comparable processing power and capability as traditional Web applications, and in many cases will be superior to our conception of today鈥檚 Web.鈥
鈥 The Web is the best place to develop and offer applications and the 鈥渁ppification鈥 of the Web is already under way.聽Paul Gardner-Stephen, telecommunications fellow at Flinders University, noted, 鈥淗TML5 and other technologies will continue to blur the line between Web and app, until the average end user would have difficulty assessing the meaning of this question.鈥澛William Schrader, a consultant and founder of PSINet, said, 鈥淭he Web and the apps will be one and the same. The app, if accessed by a large screen (formerly known as a computer) will automatically slide into a large-screen mode to allow more advertising and ease of reading, navigation, and additional information. The webpage will sense when the user leaves the computer and transfer the same information to the departing user鈥檚 smartphone (or other device).鈥
鈥 There is disagreement on whether the browser-based Web will survive. Technology consultant and author聽Stowe Boyd聽expects it will be replaced by the app-based model of Web access. 鈥淧latform companies鈥攅specially Apple and Google鈥攁re moving to new meta-architecture principles, such as tablets, touch, and gestural interfaces, ubiquitous connectivity, and social networking,鈥 he noted. 鈥淭hese are being baked into the core platforms.鈥
The reasons why apps have appeal
鈥 The convenience of using apps as a gateway to getting what you want meets human needs. 鈥淓ase of use always wins,鈥 wrote technology author and consultant聽Fred Hapgood. 鈥淧eople never cared about the Web vs. apps and devices,鈥 commented Mark Walsh, co-founder of geniusrocket.com. 鈥淭hey want free stuff, entertainment, and services when they want them, and on the device they have in front of them.鈥
鈥 Information mobility and accessibility is being monetized. 鈥淭he corporate push is to close off the Web and rely upon apps, as they are easier to control and turn into commodities for sale,鈥 said聽Jesse Drew, an associate professor of technocultural studies at the University of California-Davis. Researcher聽Brian Trammell聽of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology said, 鈥淭he Web is already moving toward a delivery platform for AJAX/Javascript/Flash 鈥榓pps鈥 masquerading as websites. Certainly, the world is moving away from open protocols where anyone can play to proprietary, more easily monetizable services.鈥
鈥 鈥淚 have to admit the 鈥榦pen鈥 Web is certainly changing鈥攋ust ask the 750 million people on the anti-Web, also known as Facebook,鈥 noted聽David Ellis, director of communication studies at York University.
鈥 The apps approach to accessing information on the Internet is perceived as 鈥渃losed,鈥 while the traditional Web paradigm is seen as 鈥渙pen.鈥 鈥淚 wish it weren鈥檛 true, but the history of enclosure, centralization, and consolidation makes me very pessimistic about the open Web winning over the closed apps,鈥 observed Electronic Frontier Foundation Pioneer Award winner聽Seth Finkelstein. 鈥淭here will always be a Web, but it may end up like the imagery of a person standing on a soapbox, referred to more for its romantic symbolism than mattering in reality.鈥
鈥 Apps鈥 ability to meet specific needs becomes a double-edged sword; they simplify life and they create 鈥渨alled gardens鈥 and a lack of serendipity. 鈥淲hat apps do terribly is the thing that makes so many like John Perry Barlow afraid of this stage of evolution,鈥 observed venture capitalist聽Richard Titus. 鈥淭he Web is about discovery and serendipity, it鈥檚 about finding something you weren鈥檛 looking for; to lose that would be to take a step back in our progress as intellectual humans, the equivalent of burning a digital book.
The case against apps domination
鈥 The rapid global adoption of narrowly targeted software applications鈥攊ncreasingly popular because of their ease of use on mobile devices鈥攊s negatively impacting creativity, innovation, and individuality on the World Wide Web. Former White House technology advisor聽Susan Crawford, a professor at Harvard University and founder of OneWebDay, responded, 鈥淎pps are like cable channels鈥攃losed, proprietary, and cleaned-up experiences鈥 don鈥檛 want the world of the Web to end like this. But it will, because people鈥檚 expectations have been shaped by companies that view them as consumers. Those giant interests will push every button they can: fear, inexperience, passivity, and willingness to be entertained. And we鈥檒l get a cleaned-up world that we can be perfectly billed for. It鈥檚 not good.鈥
鈥 鈥淚nstead of couch potatoes you鈥檒l have app-potatoes,鈥 predicted聽Giacomo Mazzone, head of institutional relations for the European Broadcasting Union
Some say the apps vs. Web framing of this issue is a false dichotomy
鈥聽Tony Smith聽of the Open Source Developers Club in Melbourne, Australia said as much: 鈥淏oth will continue to grow in ways that are impossible for most to imagine鈥. Apps are generally better for narrowly defined repetitive tasks, especially where your needs can be narrowed by your location, time, etc. The Web will remain better for asynchronous exploring and continue its gateway role.鈥
鈥 Many anonymous responders challenged the structure of the apps-Web question. Among their arguments: The world ahead is not either apps or the Web. A more hybrid world is likely. Moreover, the tussle between controlled content and user experiences on the one hand and openness will play out in other ways. As one anonymous writer put it: 鈥淎pps will continue, as will app stores, but they鈥檒l continue to be mass-market outlets for lightweight products on the one hand, and very narrow vertical outlets for very specific platform-dependent professional tools on the other, while the entire middle-ground will continue to belong to the Web.鈥
A summation by a technology futurist
贵耻迟耻谤颈蝉迟听John Smart, founder of the Acceleration Studies Foundation, looks beyond 2020 and sees apps as merely a passing phase in Internet evolution. 鈥淎pps are a great intermediate play, a way to scale up functionality of a primitive Web,鈥 he said, 鈥渂ut over time they get outcompeted for all but the most complex platforms by simpler and more standardized alternatives. What will get complex will be the 鈥榓rtificial immune systems鈥 on local machines. What will get increasingly transparent and standardized will be the limited number of open Web platforms and protocols that all the leading desktop and mobile hardware and their immune systems will agree to use. The rest of the apps and their code will reside in the long tail of vertical and niche uses.鈥
The fuller analysis of survey data dealing with the co-evolution of聽apps, the Web follows
惭辞蝉迟听Future of the Internet聽survey participants said the functionality and popularity of the Web will continue to get stronger. Many top experts said the future will be a blend of the wide-open Web and customized apps, with people using apps/Web accessed through cloud computing. More than a third of survey participants said the Web will be replaced as the primary gateway to information for most people, as humans鈥 craving for convenient access to information everywhere magnifies the prevalence of and dependence upon mobile devices and the targeted software applications known as 鈥渁pps.鈥
Overall, the tech experts participating in this survey generally believe the mobile revolution, the popularity of targeted apps, the monetization of online products and services, and cloud computing innovations will drive Web evolution. Some survey respondents say while much will be gained perhaps even more may be lost if the 鈥渁ppification鈥 of the Web comes to pass.
Following is a selection from the hundreds of written responses survey participants shared when answering this question. The selected statements are grouped under headings that indicate the major themes emerging from these responses. The headings reflect the varied and wide range of opinions found in respondents鈥 replies.
Some expect a brighter future聽for the ‘open’ World Wide Web,聽citing its advantages
Many respondents said people will carry on with creating and communicating on the Web and not cede all power to apps-based activities, one prominent blogger noting that old-world publishers are 鈥渕erely deluding themselves,鈥 and a research scientist saying the Web鈥檚 diversity is a 鈥渞eflection of human society鈥檚 restless character.鈥
Jerry Michalski, founder of Relationship Economy Expedition and consultant for the Institute for the Future, wrote in response to this question: 鈥淭he gated bubble worlds formed by app markets, Facebook, and other private spaces will bloom and fade, while people will keep gathering in the open spaces.鈥 But he tempered his remark by saying, 鈥淥n this one, I may be too optimistic.鈥
Jeff Jarvis, director of the Center for Entrepreneurial Journalism at the City University of New York Graduate School of Journalism, author of What Would Google Do? said, 鈥淭he browser鈥攐r its future equivalent鈥攚ill continue to have key advantages over apps: They are connected to the entire Net, they offer full interoperability, and they give the user more power than the developer or publisher. Yes, publishers have dreamed that apps would return to them the control of content, experience, business model, and pricing that the Net took from them, but they are merely deluding themselves. The value is not in their control of content but in the ability to become platforms for users to do what they want to do.鈥
鈥淧ublishers have dreamed that apps would return to them the control of content, experience, business model, and pricing that the Net took from them, but they are merely deluding themselves. The value is not in their control of content but in the ability to become platforms for users to do what they want to do.”
David Cohn, founder and director of the online journalism organization Spot.US, wrote, 鈥淚 sincerely hope and believe that the open Web prevails. Until there is a 鈥榃ordpress鈥-like app builder, the open Web has less barriers and more voices.鈥
Bryan Alexander, a senior fellow at the National Institute for Technology in Liberal Education, listed three reasons he expects the Web to continue to be the go-to source for material: 鈥淥ne: The Web remains the source of many apps鈥 materials. Example鈥攏ews portal apps, which duplicate website content. Two: Few producers can afford to build additional content and/or content production streams, alongside their Web work. Three: Consumers鈥 hunger to move content around their owned devices will trump walled gardens (i.e., Apple鈥檚).鈥
Allison Mankin, a computer-networking expert formerly with the National Science Foundation and active in the Internet Engineering Task Force, wrote, 鈥淐ollections of traffic data show that there are dominant, common destinations, but beyond those, the usage of the Net is highly diverse. Economic forces and our tendency to prefer smaller pictures lead to a view that there will be consolidation and apps will dominate, but in the big picture, I cannot see the highly diverse, millions to billions of destinations going away. The ability of the Net to accommodate unlimited diversity will continue and therefore there will be an open Web, never fully open because there are many competing forces, but diversified and fast-moving, as a reflection of human society鈥檚 restless character.鈥
An anonymous respondent confidently proclaimed, 鈥淭he open Web will continue to be where the action is long after my iPad has become a coaster.鈥 Another wrote, 鈥淧erhaps unfounded, I believe people will not side with a full cable-ization of the Internet.鈥
Robert Cannon, senior counsel for Internet law in the Federal Communication Commission鈥檚 Office of Strategic Planning and Policy Analysis, responded, 鈥淭he World Wide Web model of an open platform available to all innovators and accessible to all consumers and creators鈥攖hat has a low barrier to entry, low costs of development, and does not require permission from the core network (or firm) to add a new innovation鈥攖his will continue to be the compelling model. The World Wide Web may evolve significantly, but the core design of open and scalable will make it the compelling solution.鈥
鈥淭he World Wide Web model of an open platform available to all innovators and accessible to all consumers and creators鈥攖hat has a low barrier to entry, low costs of development, and does not require permission from the core network (or firm) to add a new innovation鈥攖his will continue to be the compelling model. The World Wide Web may evolve significantly, but the core design of open and scalable will make it the compelling solution.”
A trend toward individuality was predicted by one anonymous respondent, who wrote: 鈥淐hange will be driven by growing disgust with the functionality of desktop software, which will also help to system-design what you are calling the 鈥榦pen Web.鈥 It will be a very long time before consumers fully entrust their digital lives to closed systems, though tablets are certainly pushing in this direction. Apps are here to stay, but I do not think they will dramatically change the role of more open systems over the next decade. Also, there will also be a growth in content providers, and many of the trends driving the app world are focused on consumption. Trends towards natural foods, community gardens, live concerts, and the like will grow in importance. There will be powerful trends towards individuality as people embrace the importance of human experience in a world more dominated by tech knowledge.鈥
Those who see apps dominating say they play
into human nature. Are we entering an age of ‘apps potatoes’?
Survey participants who expressed concerns about a future dominated by app-enabled Internet gateways primarily see apps as 鈥渃losed鈥 and the Web as 鈥渙pen.鈥澛Susan Crawford, a former technology advisor to President Barack Obama said, 鈥淲e鈥檒l get a cleaned-up world that we can be perfectly billed for,鈥 and聽Giacomo Mazzone, an executive with the European Broadcasting Union proclaimed, 鈥淚nstead of couch potatoes you鈥檒l have app-potatoes.鈥
Seth Finkelstein, professional programmer and Electronic Frontier Foundation Pioneer Award winner, responded, 鈥淚 wish it weren鈥檛 true, but the history of enclosure, centralization, and consolidation makes me very pessimistic about the open Web winning over the closed apps. There will always be a Web, but it may end up like the imagery of a person standing on a soapbox, referred to more for its romantic symbolism than mattering in reality.鈥
Mark Callahan, artistic director for Ideas for Creative Exploration at the University of Georgia, agreed, writing, 鈥淭here seems to be a steady trend toward 鈥榓pp鈥 culture. The idea of the 鈥榦pen Web鈥 will exist as a quaint notion in 2020, tinged with nostalgia and faded utopian desire.鈥
“There seems to be a steady trend toward 鈥榓pp鈥 culture. The idea of the 鈥榦pen Web鈥 will exist as a quaint notion in 2020, tinged with nostalgia and faded utopian desire.”
A number of respondents said that humans today have adopted a consumer-culture approach to negotiating their lives, and the convenience of using apps as a gateway to getting what you want fits in that paradigm. 鈥淓ase of use always wins,鈥 wrote technology author and consultant聽Fred Hapgood.
Mazzone, head of institutional relations for the European Broadcasting Union, predicted, 鈥淭he Amazon, Apple, and Google model of apps will diminish the importance and utility of the open Web by 2020. There will be again a digital divide, this one will be between those who will prefer to use ready-made applications and those who are building ways or searching on their own to find the needed solutions. This will occur especially for the simpler functions, where a ready-made application could save time and brain energy to obtain the pursued goals. Instead of couch potatoes you鈥檒l have app potatoes.鈥
Consultant and researcher聽Stowe Boyd聽responded that people are quickly moving away from browser-based access to the app-based model of Web access, and he noted a number of factors. 鈥淎pple and other platform companies can retain greater control of the user experience, and guarantee a uniformly better user experience in the app model, based on a controlled distribution of apps through platform-based app stores. This also has enormous economic incentives for app and platform companies, since blocking low-cost, low-quality apps raises the average price for accepted apps.鈥
“Apps minimize the problems inherent with viruses, poor functionality, and malware. Apps will continue to proliferate, especially as mobile phones are increasingly used. It is not that the Web will be unimportant; it will just become part of the underlying technological framework that users acknowledge but do not understand.”
Boyd said the ideas behind what is known as the 鈥榦pen Web鈥 are based on relatively old principles, including disconnected computers, HTTP information protocols, and the desktop operating system of folders, files, and executables. 鈥淧latform companies鈥攅specially Apple and Google鈥攁re moving to new meta-architecture principles, such as tablets, touch, and gestural interfaces, ubiquitous connectivity, and social networking,鈥 he noted. 鈥淭hese are being baked into the core platforms so that app developers will be able to take advantage of them, natively, without having to reinvent those wheels over and over again. Note that this provides a second and enormously large economic leverage for app developers, and by extension, for users. Put another way, the platform companies will push a great deal into their infrastructure, and app developers will be able to push much higher into ultrastructure, providing a much richer user experience via post-browser-Web apps.鈥
Boyd predicted browser-based access is nearing its end. 鈥淚n the very near-term鈥攍ike five to seven years鈥攖he browser will drop from the most-used tool to the least-used, because of this change,鈥 he said. 鈥淛ust look at how people use their iPhones. The browser will be something like the terminal program on the Mac: a tool for programmers and throwbacks, only occasionally used by regular folks. A few years ago, I worked on a project for the Mozilla foundation, on the future of the browser. I was the first to raise my hand and say that in ten years the browser would be dead. The Mozilla guys laughed it off, but I am standing by my original prediction.鈥
An anonymous respondent said apps serve human needs for easy access to get what they want and the Web will simply be an invisible aspect of Internet architecture. 鈥淧eople don鈥檛 understand how the Internet works now,鈥 he said, 鈥渁nd apps minimize the problems inherent with viruses, poor functionality, and malware. Apps will continue to proliferate, especially as mobile phones are increasingly used to access the Internet. It is not that the Web will be unimportant; it will just become part of the underlying technological framework that users acknowledge but do not understand.鈥
Apps are easier to turn into profits or ‘monetize’; those who see them dominating share fears for the future
Many survey respondents say the current evolution in mobile Internet access is being dominated by a focused attempt to find ways to derive profits from the global network. 鈥淭he corporate push is to close off the Web and rely upon apps, as they are easier to control and turn into commodities for sale,鈥 wrote聽Jesse Drew, an associate professor of technocultural studies at the University of California-Davis. 鈥淚t is another click toward stripping citizens of their ability to create and control their technological environment.鈥
“The corporate push is to close off the Web and rely upon apps, as they are easier to control and turn into commodities for sale. It is another click toward stripping citizens of their ability to create and control their technological environment鈥
David Ellis, director of communication studies at York University and author of the blog Life on the Broadband Internet, shared historical parallels and said the Web is being altered by social and economic forces. 鈥淭he apps model as developed by Amazon, Apple, Google, and the like is another form of the walled garden made notorious by AOL. Then, as now, large numbers of people online are going for this model, and mostly for the same reason鈥攃onvenience. Starting in the late 1990s, Steve Case saw a huge market among newbies who had come recently to dialup and had no idea how to navigate around the Web, let alone use dedicated Internet protocols like FTP. That model finally broke because a) broadband happened and b) the newbies grew up and wanted to venture out past AOL鈥檚 proprietary offerings.聽 What鈥檚 different today is we鈥檙e getting a lot more growing in our gardens. They look better, offer more choice, and get real things done reliably. What鈥檚 not so different is we鈥檝e still got the walls. Or to put it in Jonathan Zittrain鈥檚 terms [in the book The Future of the Internet鈥擜nd How to Stop It], a lot more tethered appliances鈥攖hink iPad鈥攁nd fewer generative devices鈥攖hink iMac, though even here Apple is tying us tighter and tighter to their servers and commercial services (no more OS on a disc). The apps model looks like it鈥檚 going to win, though not necessarily because of the apps themselves.
鈥淚 sometimes think I鈥檓 giving up too much freedom of choice by sticking with Macs, or putting too many eggs in Google鈥檚 basket,鈥 Ellis continued. 鈥淏ut wild horses couldn鈥檛 tear me away from my MacBook Pro or Google Analytics. On the other hand, loyalty to these 鈥榗ontrolled鈥 devices and services isn鈥檛 the same thing as running everything from the app store. The research indicates most people use only a tiny fraction of the apps available, and many downloads get used once and then vanish. I鈥檓 therefore not convinced apps will make general-purpose browsers and computing devices disappear. Nor am I sure that having 130 apps (like my daughter does) is a way to make your life more convenient. But I have to admit the 鈥榦pen鈥 Web is certainly changing鈥攋ust ask the 750 million people on the anti-Web, also known as Facebook.鈥
Former White House technology advisor Crawford, a professor at Harvard University and founder of OneWebDay (http://onewebday.org/), responded, 鈥淚鈥檓 sad about this. Really sad. Apps are like cable channels鈥攃losed, proprietary, and cleaned-up experiences. As at Disneyland, there are no back alleys or surprises鈥攁nything unexpected was planned by someone at headquarters. I don鈥檛 want the world of the Web to end like this. But it will, because people鈥檚 expectations have been shaped by companies that view them as consumers. Those giant interests will push every button they can: fear, inexperience, passivity, and willingness to be entertained. And we鈥檒l get a cleaned-up world that we can be perfectly billed for. It鈥檚 not good. It wasn鈥檛 the point of the decentralized Internet. Even the commercial Web wasn鈥檛 the point of the decentralized Internet. It was all supposed to be about human communication, unlimited, unfiltered, and full-bandwidth. But instead of being known (which is the goal of humans, always) we鈥檒l be counted by apps. Some of us will continue to ignore apps, and in turn we鈥檒l be thoroughly ignored and rendered irrelevant by the new world. But when you鈥檙e bored, come visit.鈥
An anonymous respondent said, 鈥淭he future will depend on how powerful the oligopoly will be in creating a stratified system wherein the Web is deemed low-class and is therefore underfunded and slowed via corporate and regulatory connivance.鈥 Another anonymous survey participant wrote, 鈥淎uthorities will, piece-by-piece, eliminate the free Web through regulation, licensing, and firewalls that respect country borders. The Web will be more like cable TV via apps; everything will be either pay-as-you-go or advertising-supported.鈥
Brian Trammell, a researcher at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, says the 鈥渄ream of the Web as an open, level playing field鈥 was 鈥渄ead after its first ten years.鈥 He wrote: 鈥淭he Web is already moving toward a delivery platform for AJAX/Javascript/Flash 鈥榓pps鈥 masquerading as websites, so the line between an 鈥榦pen Web鈥 and an 鈥榓pp-dominated world鈥 is kind of an arbitrary one. Certainly, the world is moving away from open protocols where anyone can play to proprietary, more easily monetizable services (e.g. Twitter or Facebook messaging instead of SMTP/IMAP). HTTP will probably continue to be an important transport/session layer protocol, and Web browsers will continue playing a part in application access and installation. But the dream of the Web as an open, level playing field where anyone can publish or provide services was as dead after its first ten years, as it was in the case of radio. Security threats鈥攔eal and imagined鈥攚ill tend to decrease the appeal of the open Web for both providers and consumers; for example, electronic banking, where the risk of a security breach is especially high, is already moving toward closed access on the customer end (virtualized or dedicated PCs for customer access, or proprietary devices for session and transaction verification).鈥
Kevin Carson, a research associate at the Center for a Stateless Society, predicted, 鈥淚t鈥檚 the Apple 1984 ad all over again, but this time the Big Brother on the telescreen is Steve Jobs and the hammer thrower鈥檚 wearing a Linux penguin on her t-shirt.鈥
Richard Titus, a seed funding venture capitalist at his own fund, Octavian Ventures, worried over the survival of serendipity, saying it depends upon the Web. 鈥淲hat apps do terribly is the thing that makes so many like John Perry Barlow afraid of this stage of evolution,鈥 he observed. 鈥淭he Web is about discovery and serendipity, it鈥檚 about finding something you weren鈥檛 looking for; to lose that would be to take a step back in our progress as intellectual humans, the equivalent of burning a digital book.鈥
鈥淎pps are an outgrowth of a Web that has slowly but inexorably come to be dominated by a handful of major players and the insatiable institutional greed that motivates them to develop and promote tightly restricted and highly monetized iPads, Kindles, Nooks, Droids, and all the other sleek little tools and playthings designed, to smother individual initiative and strengthen corporate control. This shall not change for the better by 2020.鈥
Ebenezer Baldwin Bowles, owner and managing editor of corndancer.com, also expressed concerns about controlled devices, responding, 鈥淎pps are the logical extension of a late 1990s movement among freelance developers that produced thousands of snippets of software known as 鈥榮hareware,鈥 some freely given for the love of the game, others launched into the Web in hopes of attracting donations or enticing users to purchase more robust versions of the snippet, now known as the app.
“There is nothing new but the level of corporate control鈥攎uch higher鈥攁nd the narrowing of options for the individual. Apps are also an outgrowth of a Web that has slowly but inexorably come to be dominated by a handful of major players and the insatiable institutional greed that motivates them to develop and promote tightly restricted and highly monetized iPads, Kindles, Nooks, Droids, and all the other sleek little tools and playthings designed, ultimately, to smother individual initiative and strengthen corporate control. This shall not change for the better by 2020.鈥
It’s ‘appening’ right now: The emerging trend is
accessing apps in the cloud, and ‘appification’ is under way
People are already conducting a lot of their mobile-apps-based and PC-based communication in the cloud鈥攐n remote servers accessed through the Internet鈥攁nd the experts expect that evolution to continue to expand.聽Steve Jones, a distinguished professor of communication at the University of Illinois-Chicago, said apps are already a dominant gateway through which many people focus online processes. 鈥淭he degree to which people interact through apps is already quite high,鈥 he said, 鈥渁nd it is only a matter of time until the majority of users of major sites like Facebook, Google, and others will be thoroughly via apps.鈥
Cathy Cavanaugh, an associate professor of educational technology at the University of Florida-Gainesville, predicted, 鈥淎pp development and use will be become easier and more inclusive as low-threshold development tools become as widespread as office productivity tools. Education will turn to app development as project-based demonstration of learning and to custom, adaptive assessment apps for other measures of learning. Individuals will use app creation and modification as a creative medium.鈥
Anita Salem, a consultant and human systems researcher at the Naval Postgraduate School, said, 鈥淎pps are here to stay; I see them merging into the Internet as cloud applications, available 鈥榓s needed.鈥 I suspect that the apps will also start to merge into more robust combinations that are task-oriented for the business sector. For personal use, apps will remain small and will be localized to specific functions. This makes sense economically for suppliers and purchasers.鈥
“Apps are here to stay; I see them merging into the Internet as cloud applications, available 鈥榓s needed.鈥 I suspect that the apps will also start to merge into more robust combinations that are task-oriented for the business sector. For personal use, apps will remain small and will be localized to specific functions. This makes sense economically for suppliers and purchasers.”
Tom Hood, CEO of the Maryland Association of CPAs, observed that his teenage and young adult children sleep with their smartphones and said he sees a combination of approaches. 鈥淭he dizzying pace of adoption in the mobile category makes me believe that the apps are the future,鈥 he wrote. 鈥淎ccess to the open Web, useful focused apps, and cloud-based applications via mobile devices will be the most likely outcome in 2020. I am also wondering how the semantic Web (Web 3.0) will influence these predictions鈥攚ill they be apps, open-Web or both?鈥
Ondrej Sury, chief scientist at the Internet registry for the Czech Republic, CZ.NIC, said big data in the cloud is the predominant looming trend. 鈥淓ven though the apps may be seen as more secure, the world is moving to the direction of offloading your data with big providers and it鈥檚 really not important what protocol the people will use when accessing them. The problem with this trend is that the people will have less control over their data, there will be more snooping and more control from governments and big companies. It also means less privacy, which we also can see under the excuse of more 鈥榮ecurity.鈥 I actually think that there will be gap鈥攖here will be mass of people who will prefer convenience over privacy and security, and there will be people who will guard their privacy, and then something in between.鈥
鈥淭he app revolution will soon be complete,鈥 wrote an anonymous survey participant. 鈥淯sers welcome trusted intermediaries provided they feel they are getting maximum choice and good value. Well-designed apps will emerge to accommodate user-generated content and make it much easier to find and use. Apps will also create a more efficient marketplace through which creators can harvest value for their innovations, far more easily than the repeated, failed efforts to monetize 鈥榃eb content.鈥 Apps Store providers can ensure that apps are bandwidth-efficient, that they protect consumer privacy, that their provenance can be more readily known to potential users, etc. While there are some potential trade-offs on 鈥榦penness,鈥 the apps marketplace should be sufficiently competitive such that anyone with a legitimate product will have the opportunity to reach an audience鈥攑robably far more readily than most innovators can through the Web. By no means will the Web disappear鈥攊t will serve a critical free-speech function. But it will not be where livelihoods are made.鈥
Jeff Eisenach, managing director and principal at Navigant Economics LLC, said, 鈥淒igital tools that park some code on the device and some in the cloud (apps) will continue to proliferate, along with tools accessed through generic browsers (鈥榃eb pages鈥) and tools that reside only on the device.鈥
Paul Gardner-Stephen, rural, remote and humanitarian telecommunications fellow at Flinders University, noted, 鈥淗TML5 and other technologies will continue to blur the line between Web and app, until the average end user would have difficulty assessing the meaning of this question.鈥
“Users welcome trusted intermediaries provided they feel they are getting maximum choice and good value. Well-designed apps will emerge to accommodate user-generated content and make it much easier to find and use. Apps will also create a more efficient marketplace through which creators can harvest value for their innovations, far more easily than the repeated, failed efforts to monetize 鈥榃eb content.鈥 Apps Store providers can ensure that apps are bandwidth-efficient, that they protect consumer privacy, that their provenance can be more readily known to potential users, etc.”
Rob Scott, chief technology officer and intelligence liaison at Nokia, proclaimed there is no doubt that Web apps will replace native apps on network devices of all types. 鈥淥nce HTML5 browsers and fully capable Web runtimes are in place on the common Kindle through iPhone, the Web app will begin replacing native apps,鈥 he said. 鈥淭here will still be plenty of native apps in use to offer the utmost in user experience and performance, but the vast majority of applications look and work as much as their predecessors do while being served from the cloud rather than the local window manager.
鈥淭he problem of intermittent failure of Web apps due to loss of connectivity,鈥 he added, 鈥渋s addressed by putting the 鈥榮erver鈥 on the user鈥檚 device and allowing it to act in a cached mode when connectivity is lost. While this cannot work for tasks requiring live network access, such as financial transactions, this limitation also exists for the native apps and thus presents no new problems.鈥
An anonymous participation observed, 鈥淚 currently see a broad degree of support from industry for purely Web-based systems. Google and Microsoft are clearly behind this and, strangely enough, I see Apple as also supporting this trend through its ongoing development of WebKit. So far as that support continues, I see the future of applications to be descendants of HTML5 and not iOS, Android, or WebOS. Cloud-based applications are better for everyone in the system鈥攄evelopers, providers, consumers, and enterprise鈥攆or this to fail.鈥
Microsoft Research and Harvard expert聽danah boyd聽agrees the future of the Web and apps is not an either/or game. 鈥淏oth will be used more heavily than either are used today,鈥 she responded, 鈥渁nd, given the early stage of apps, it will appear that they are used even more. But the vast majority of apps are simply a wrapper around Web content that makes it as accessible as a bookmark, and the 鈥榃eb鈥 is filled with DRMed content already. So creating a clean division between Web and apps is going to be more impossible anyhow.鈥
Nathaniel James, a social innovation consultant and former director of OneWebDay, said most consumers will follow the technology that is 鈥渁ffordable, readily available, and provides an intuitive user experience,鈥 adding, 鈥淭he massive investment and rapid adoption of the apps model suggests its strong standing vs. open Web technologies. However, even if the apps model does predominate usage, the open Web will continue to thrive, sometimes in parallel to, sometimes interoperatively with, apps. The global Internet user population will be massive, some markets will prefer the benefits of free, open technology, and a lively community of Web developers will steward an open innovation space on the Web.鈥
Many trust in HTML5 and say that improving
Web functionality will be a key to its utility
The engineers and research scientists who continue to work on the Web鈥檚 evolution have been rolling out the semantic Web鈥攚hat some people call Web 3.0. Today鈥檚 sophisticated聽 Internet users go online expecting to find high-quality interactive experiences that incorporate their geolocation, preferences, animations, HD-quality video, and augmented-reality functions, to name just a few advanced characteristics. Many experts say the continued success of the Web is dependent upon the ongoing development and acceptance of HTML5, the latest version of the HyperText Markup Language used to create Web pages.
HTML5 is most often used to refer to what is actually a suite of approaches (including HTML5, CSS, SVG, WOFF, and others) that Web architects are using to orchestrate interactive text, graphics, video, audio and other elements users wish to implement. The evolution to HTML5 is allowing people to create more dynamic Web content, making it possible to write browser-accessible Web apps that are as appealing and interactive as the device-specific apps so popular now on smartphones and tablets. The newest versions of browsers, including Firefox, Internet Explorer, and Safari, can easily read HTML5 pages without using 鈥減lug ins鈥 which can sometimes cause usability problems. While HTML5 is still under development, it is being actively deployed; broad interoperability for the full suite is targeted for 2014. Many survey respondents said Web evolution will be significant over the next few years, heightening its relevance and functionality. They say the apparent separation consumers perceive between access through mobile apps and access on the Web will disappear.
鈥淚 would bet that HTML5 is going to make the Web very attractive. There are a lot of advantages to an open Web, and I would hate to see that go away,鈥 said聽Hal Varian, chief economist at Google.
“The real question is whether consumers will perceive those HTML5-based apps as part of the Web. What is worrying is a landscape in which so many people interact with the Web through these tiny little pinholes created by individual apps. If users鈥 experience of the Web is largely through the lens of their apps, will they still perceive themselves as users of the Web? Will they feel like they have a stake in Web standards, access, interoperability, and net neutrality? Given how hard it is to engage today鈥檚 users in these issues, it鈥檚 hard to see how people who have grown up or lived behind the app wall will really feel connected to the Web as a whole.”
Bruce Nordman, a research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, responded, 鈥淎pps and Web will both be winners, as many apps will be written in successors to HTML5 and so the distinction between the two will be less obvious and less important than it is today. There is some burden to having an app, so that there is a limit on how many people are likely to need or want, with ordinary Web services filling in the remainder.鈥
Alexandra Samuel, director of the Social + Interactive Media Centre at Emily Carr University, predicted, 鈥淎 year or two from now, the ascendance and elaboration of HTML5 is going to make the distinction between apps and Web seem somewhat artificial. We鈥檙e already seeing the rise of mobile-optimized HTML5 sites that are designed to be locally stored, like apps, on a smartphone or tablet device. What we haven鈥檛 got quite yet is a standard, cross-platform way to attach a payment mechanism to those sites (which are often sites that could be described as Web-based applications) so that people can be asked to pay for HTML5 apps the way they do for Apple or Android apps. Some manufacturers (notably Apple) will be strongly motivated to create developer tools that make native apps superior to HTML5-based apps, but the advantages of cross-platform portability and pricing, not to mention anxieties about vendor lock-in, privacy, etc., will likely make HTML5-based apps a strong, if not dominant, part of the app market. The real question is whether consumers will perceive those HTML5-based apps as part of the Web. What is worrying is a landscape in which so many people interact with the Web through these tiny little pinholes created by individual apps. If users鈥 experience of the Web is largely through the lens of their apps, will they still perceive themselves as users of the Web? Will they feel like they have a stake in Web standards, access, interoperability, and net neutrality? Given how hard it is to engage today鈥檚 users in these issues, it鈥檚 hard to see how people who have grown up or lived behind the app wall will really feel connected to the Web as a whole.鈥
Christian Huitema, distinguished engineer at Microsoft, responded, 鈥淎pps are nice, but both users and providers are starting to rebel against the 鈥榳alled gardens.鈥 We are already seeing the pendulum swing back towards the Web, with many companies bypassing the app store and delivering their content using HTML5.鈥
A lack of ‘walled gardens’ is a perceived
strength of the World Wide Web today
While some people see publishers鈥 desires for revenues as a driving force for an apps-dominant world,聽Mike Liebhold, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at The Institute for the Future, is one of many survey respondents who are confident that the economic angle will actually keep the Web on top. 鈥淭he Web will be stronger than ever although apps will continue to be popular simply because many small developers appreciate app stores as commerce platforms,鈥 he said. 鈥淢any large content and commerce service providers are growing resistant to sharing revenues with app store operators, and so will increasingly directly offer advanced services on the Web built on standard capabilities like HTML5 and subsequent developments.鈥
A number of respondents shared Liebhold鈥檚 view. One anonymous survey participant wrote, 鈥淎s devices, operating systems, and soft/hardware variants multiply, the Web will be increasingly seen by content providers as a more lucrative place to develop applications (rather than a specific piece of hardware or software). Developers will rather create one Web or cloud-based program that works on everything, rather than several different applications. As companies like Apple control their app stores with iron fists, we鈥檒l see software developers exploiting new Web technology to reach the widest audience and prevent a middle-person from skimming a percentage of profits.鈥
“As devices, operating systems, and soft/hardware variants multiply, the Web will be increasingly seen by content providers as a more lucrative place to develop applications (rather than a specific piece of hardware or software). Developers will rather create one Web or cloud-based program that works on everything, rather than several different applications. As companies like Apple control their app stores with iron fists, we鈥檒l see software developers exploiting new Web technology to reach the widest audience and prevent a middle-person from skimming a percentage of profits.”
Pete Cranston, a digital media and information and communication technologies for development consultant based in Oxford, UK, commented, 鈥淲alled gardens don鈥檛 survive forever in the Internet. As cheap, reliable, fast connectivity spreads, the open Web will continue to offer the best opportunities for innovators and market-breakers, especially as Internet-based economies grow in competition to the US.鈥
An anonymous survey participant wrote, 鈥淭his is largely a distinction without a difference. The apps that thrive will not be walled gardens, which is kind of what the 鈥榃eb Is Dead鈥 argument implies, but different and more useful viewpoints on the larger Web which make it easier to navigate and use for a single task. So really the answer is both of the above.鈥
Another anonymous respondent observed that 鈥渘ot all information can be gracefully atomized to the size of a mobile phone, and people probably won鈥檛 be doing most of their 鈥榙eep dives鈥 on the phone on the subway鈥攖he app is the ocean surface for floating and swimming, the Web is the ocean for diving.鈥
Apple has been in the media spotlight significantly more than competing mobile software and hardware corporations the past few years, with most of the attention focused on the success of the iPhone, iPod, iPad, and App Store. An anonymous survey respondent reacted, 鈥淎pps are a passing fad generated by the Apple marketing machine and the artificial constraints imposed by its business model. There鈥檚 no reason the open Web will not come to provide the same benefits that people get from apps, while still holding on to its own strengths. The interoperability that the Web offers will trump the walled-garden silo, approach. The tide has already started to turn on this with magazine publishers creating Web apps instead of Apple apps so they don鈥檛 have to be at the mercy of Apple鈥檚 monopolistic business dealings.鈥
Microsoft was mentioned in another anonymous respondent鈥檚 reply, 鈥溾淲hile apps are prevalent now, they will eventually overreach and the market will react to the concentration of power, just as it did against Microsoft.鈥
And another anonymous participant wrote, 鈥淎s we know from the Apple vs. Microsoft cycle of the 1980s and 1990s, you can鈥檛 run a high-margin, high-volume business through apps, and the new capabilities of the browser will make it the pre-eminent high-volume platform. Like automobiles or phones before it, the Web will be so vital by 2020 people will take it for granted. The average citizen born after 1995 won鈥檛 be able to imagine a world without the Web any more than the average citizen born after 1950 could imagine a world without trucks.鈥
With ubuiquitous connectivity
comes a need for more responsibility
A number of survey participants said the positive evolution of targeted apps and the Web will require the innovation of better approaches for managing information needs.
Wesley George, principal engineer for the Advanced Technology Group at Time Warner Cable, noted that progress is all moving us toward 鈥渦biquitous connectivity.鈥 He responded: 鈥淭he best application will win, whether it鈥檚 categorized as an app or part of the Web (2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 42.0, doesn鈥檛 matter really). The lines between 鈥榯he Web鈥 and 鈥榓pps鈥 will continue to blur, with the important thing being that the method employed makes the task easier, more intuitive, more convenient, richer, and better tailored to the device being used to complete the task. The only constant is that the ubiquitous connectivity that terms like 鈥榯he Web鈥 have come to represent will continue to be stronger than ever in users鈥 lives.鈥
“There is a confusing and frustrating array of hardware, software, apps, websites, etc. Choosing from among them and then using them is burdensome. While learning and getting accustomed to any one of these is not that hard, the diversity of them, with their different interfaces, is already problematic. When I come back to a piece of software or an app that I use infrequently, I have to figure out once again how this one works.聽 So I see whatever will simplify and unify our activities as being popular. As much as we worry about, say, Apple or Google, their consistency across many instances of use makes them easier to deal with. I see economy of effort, combined with quality of service, as the overriding criteria by which most people will make most such choices.”
Marti Hearst, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley and advisor to start-ups and the major search engine companies, said, 鈥淎pps and the Web will co-evolve and each adopt characteristics of the other, and by 2020 we鈥檒l have some other model entirely. In more detail, the importance of apps will continue to grow, but after a while, people will have too many to scan through, and then people will require a way to manage apps, including a way to search them. Meanwhile, the Web is being very much changed and influenced by apps, and every year, what it means for something to 鈥榖e on the Web鈥 changes. There will always be a need to find general information, and apps by their nature do not provide a centralized way for information to be shared. There will then be a need for a way for apps to communicate among themselves, be better found by search engines, and so on, and they will become more Web-like.鈥
Some survey respondents said people don鈥檛 distinguish between approaches, they just want access to what they need. 鈥淧eople never cared about the Web vs. apps and devices,鈥 commented聽Mark Walsh, co-founder of geniusrocket.com. 鈥淭hey want free stuff, entertainment, and services when they want them, and on the device they have in front of them.鈥
An anonymous survey respondent expressed the frustration many people are feeling in regard to the staggering amount of choices, writing, 鈥淲hat I see is a reduction in variety within (not across) areas of activity. There is a confusing and frustrating array of hardware, software, apps, websites, etc. Choosing from among them and then using them is burdensome. While learning and getting accustomed to any one of these is not that hard, the diversity of them, with their different interfaces, is already problematic. When I come back to a piece of software or an app that I use infrequently, I have to figure out once again how this one works.聽 So I see whatever will simplify and unify our activities as being popular. As much as we worry about, say, Apple or Google, their consistency across many instances of use makes them easier to deal with. I see economy of effort, combined with quality of service, as the overriding criteria by which most people will make most such choices.鈥
There will be a blended world where
each structure has its place and they converge
Jeffrey Alexander, senior science and technology policy analyst at SRI International鈥檚 Center for Science, Technology, and Economic Development, sees the best future as a mix now being explored by companies like Amazon. 鈥淚n general the Web will come to resemble a segment within the 鈥榓pp economy鈥 more than the reverse,鈥 he wrote, predicting:
鈥淭he current incarnation of the Web will continue to be important for certain kinds of human-computer interaction, particularly those that require sustained attention and a richer media experience. However, the rise of cloud computing infrastructure means that apps will have comparable processing power and capability as traditional Web applications, and in many cases will be superior to our conception of today鈥檚 Web. Amazon鈥檚 new cloud-accelerated browser is an indication of where the Web is going, where more Web-delivered solutions will combine the best of local processing power and cloud-based distributed computing.鈥
Miguel Alcaine, head of the International Telecommunication Union office in Honduras, said while apps will be dominant, the open Web will retain some importance. 鈥淭he apps might grow up in restricted and guarded Internet spaces as opposed to the open Web,鈥 he predicted. 鈥淎lthough it is less likely, they can also grow with their roots in an open Web. The open Web will remain an important place for technology people, probably with interoperability standards allowing people to switch between applications. There will be less and less things you can do if you decide to remain anonymous.鈥
Mark Watson, senior engineer for Netflix and a leading participant in various technology groups related to the Internet, says the Web itself is going to become more app-like, and he wonders how it will continue to be monetized. 鈥淭he evolution of the platform available in Web browsers means that the experience when you visit a webpage and the experience when using an app will converge, possibly to the point where there is little practical difference between a 鈥榖ookmark enabled for offline use鈥 and a 鈥榙ownloaded app,鈥欌 he said. 鈥淎lready many apps just render a Web page in a 鈥榗hromeless鈥 browser window, so the distinction becomes a very thin one based on the UI used to launch the app/page. A different slant on the question is: What will be the dominant monetization strategy for Web pages and apps? The current app-store model includes a one-time-up-front-payment model, which doesn鈥檛 really exist on the open Web. It could be that this difference in monetization models is the only practical difference between apps and webpages.鈥
“The evolution of the platform available in Web browsers means that the experience when you visit a webpage and the experience when using an app will converge, possibly to the point where there is little practical difference between a 鈥榖ookmark enabled for offline use鈥 and a 鈥榙ownloaded app. Already many apps just render a Web page in a 鈥榗hromeless鈥 browser window, so the distinction becomes a very thin one based on the UI used to launch the app/page. A different slant on the question is: What will be the dominant monetization strategy for Web pages and apps? The current app-store model includes a one-time-up-front-payment model, which doesn鈥檛 really exist on the open Web. It could be that this difference in monetization models is the only practical difference between apps and webpages.”
An anonymous respondent noted, 鈥淭he Web is the ocean. Apps are islands. Water and islands co-exist. Some people prefer to swim, sail, and explore. Others prefer to sunbathe, settle, and, on occasion, island hop. Most people do a mixture of both. I think this will become more streamlined over time, but I don鈥檛 think of the apps/Web question as a battle with one winner.鈥
An anonymous respondent noted, 鈥淭he very notion of 鈥榓pps鈥 vs. 鈥榃eb鈥 misses the point of changes in infrastructure that are rather closer on the horizon. This does not even take into account two extraordinarily important things: 1) The majority of the world accesses network communications via a mobile phone (and though network access is patchy at best, apps in this case are far more efficient) and 2) apps and Web are becoming very much interconnected with cloud. It is the cloud that is poised to change how things are done for work, play, and communication and apps and Web will provide interfaces.鈥
Another anonymous respondent wrote, 鈥淚nteractions will definitely be different as a result of kids growing up with all this technology at their fingertips. I don鈥檛 think this will result in less-smart children, but it will definitely result in children who learn differently than those who grew up without constant stimulation from technology.鈥
Apps vs. the Web聽is聽not聽the issue
A number of survey participants challenged the framing of the question. Their responses add a lot to the conversation. Many of the strongest arguments were made by anonymous respondents. Following is a representative collection of those responses:
鈥淎pps and Web browsers are delivery mechanisms鈥攖he emphasis will shift strongly to services. The winning services and sites will be accessible by whatever means and device the user has鈥攂rowser or specific app framework. Consider the number of popular websites that support Web, app, and customized mobile access today. The underlying Web technology will remain important, as developing for the Web will make it easy to roll out apps for the multiple app frameworks that will be viable in 2020. No, the iPhone is not going to conquer the world, neither will Android, and I expect there to be at least one more viable mobile app platform in that timeframe.鈥
鈥淭his is asking the wrong question. We talk about the Web as if it were the HTTP servers that make it up, but it really is the information contained in it that鈥檚 important. Prior to HTTP, we had FTP and Gopher. The proliferation of the Web is actually continuing in the various apps available, the Web is not being supplanted by the apps. So 鈥榦ne or the other鈥 is probably the wrong question. A better question might be鈥斺楬ow is the evolution of the Web best represented by apps鈥攎omentary overlay or paradigm shift?鈥欌
鈥淭he answer is somewhere in between. The biggest factors here are going to be issues of perceived control (by users and governments), monetization of content, customization, and the level of sophistication of users. As a result, I expect a bimodal distribution describing app use vs. online use, with the majority using a hybrid approach.鈥
鈥淭he question is not that the Web will be less important or useful. The point is鈥攖he Web will be still important or useful but most devices and apps will find a more direct way to perform directly through the Internet (though not through the Web) several functions鈥攕uch as entertainment media, weather information, banking, etc.鈥
鈥淥pportunities to integrate data with physical spaces are under utilized, today, which means in 2020 there will be more 鈥榓pps鈥, but they won鈥檛 displace certain Web-only applications where screen 鈥榬eal-estate鈥 and heavy-weight computation are necessary resources. The limits of 鈥榰biquitous computing鈥 will become more clear, as the hardware limits for battery life and network connectivity limit the scale of computation for certain applications on mobile devices.鈥
鈥淎pp monocultures will not predominate, and in the absence of a single target platform for development, it鈥檚 simpler and more profitable to develop for the Web, and not be beholden to an app store or platform vendor. Obviously, apps will continue, as will app stores, but they鈥檒l continue to be mass-market outlets for lightweight products on the one hand, and very narrow vertical outlets for very specific platform-dependent professional tools on the other, while the entire middle-ground will continue to belong to the Web.鈥
鈥淭he improved capabilities of mobile devices, plus the added efficiency, convenience, and enjoyment of using purpose-built apps will shift the consumer and non-IT specialized worker鈥檚 focus rapidly to native code apps. The distinction between phone and tablet will disappear, becoming more of a matter of how much text or graphics you want to see in what size. With free or inexpensive apps for 90% of consumer鈥檚 needs, that is where further investment will focus. Organizations will deploy apps for single-purpose internal functions. The World Wide Web will still exist for free-form research and use.鈥
鈥淏asically, in the current client and server silo model these are the two choices. But personal data stores and VRM will disrupt that model so the client and server or cow/calf model that the Web currently is built around will shift dramatically over the next nine years. At that point, neither one of the scenarios conveys what will really happen.鈥
Some see a new user-interface
paradigm that is still not visible on the horizon
Sam Punnett, president of FAD Research, was one of several survey respondents who predicted access will become more seamless. 鈥淏y 2020 the specificity of apps vs. Web vs. anything else will begin to fade,鈥 he said, 鈥渁s there will likely be more sophisticated ways of engaging programs through input methods using voice, gesture, possibly even hard wiring [in humans] either through implants or sensors. What this should tend to do is to further drive the technology into the background. We won鈥檛 care whether it鈥檚 an app, Web app, or other devoted software as long as it gets the task performed seamlessly. If I had to place my bet, the Google approach and openness will trump the Apple approach of exclusivity.鈥
William Schrader, independent consultant and founder of PSINet, said a lot can happen in just eight years. 鈥淭he Web and the apps will be one and the same,鈥 he predicted. 鈥淭he app, if accessed by a large screen (formerly known as a computer) will automatically slide into a large-screen mode to allow more advertising and ease of reading, navigation, and additional information. The webpage will sense when the user leaves the computer and transfer the same information to the departing user鈥檚 smartphone (or other device). Hundreds of examples might be stated which are all within reach with today鈥檚 technology and innovative spirit. But, once we allow for eight more years of experimentation, technology innovation, and the co-mingling of 鈥榯elephone鈥欌攍aptop, tablet, smartphone, and all the rest鈥攚e must be prepared for the unknown. Yes, this will be an interesting eight years.鈥
“Information will be able to speak on networks. Networks, fields of connectivity, and the idea that everything is loosely entangled will be the norm. The paradigm will be that 鈥榚verything wants to be connected,鈥 鈥榗onnectivity is opportunity,鈥 and connectivity will make the invisible visible. Opportunities will be lateral, allowing different information stores and devices to connect to other stores. Networks will be redundant and loose instead of tight and brittle as they are today. If one cannot connect on one network, or a device switches off, another network will arrive to take its place. The 鈥榃orld Wide Web鈥 will be a term no longer used. Perhaps we will use a simple term meaning connected or not. Connectivity = life.”
Susan Price, CEO and chief Web strategist at Firecat Studio LLC, expects rapid evolution of the user-interface or UI. 鈥淎pps mirror the human need for discrete labels and a mental model that helps us focus on one activity at a time,鈥 she noted. 鈥淭he construct of a 鈥榳ebpage鈥 is probably on the way out, but the construct of a 鈥榳ebsite鈥 as the virtual representation of a business, organization, or individual, will continue to be needed. As UI technology develops, more virtual-reality experiences will allow us to 鈥榲isit鈥 such a virtual establishment with an avatar, say. We鈥檒l transcend the 鈥榩age鈥 model as these interfaces become more seamless and easy to use.鈥
Amber Case, CEO of Geoloqi, is an anthropologist who studies the ways in which humans are implementing new technologies. She said she shares the views of writer and consultant Sheldon Renan. He argues that the concept of communications through tools such as the 鈥業nternet鈥 or 鈥榓pps鈥 will shift and people will adopt the idea of Netness. 鈥淚nformation will be able to speak on networks,鈥 Case said. 鈥淣etworks, fields of connectivity, and the idea that everything is loosely entangled will be the norm. The paradigm will be that 鈥榚verything wants to be connected,鈥 鈥榗onnectivity is opportunity,鈥 and connectivity will make the invisible visible. Opportunities will be lateral, allowing different information stores and devices to connect to other stores. Networks will be redundant and loose instead of tight and brittle as they are today. If one cannot connect on one network, or a device switches off, another network will arrive to take its place. The 鈥榃orld Wide Web鈥 will be a term no longer used. Perhaps we will use a simple term meaning connected or not. Connectivity = life.鈥
Above all, humane approaches should prevail
Where are we heading? Richard Lowenberg, director and broadband planner for the 1st Mile Institute and a network activist since the 1970s, offered this:
鈥淥penness is a critical concept, which like 鈥榮ustainability鈥 is over-used but largely misunderstood or applied. Tools and apps will continue to be driven by user needs, innovation, creativity, and consumerism.
“They will foster difficult, reactionary, and disruptive changes throughout the world if not developed in concert with humane approaches to our complex needs for better resource distribution, health and well being, sustaining energy strategies, and economic valuation based on the little bit we know about our place in the world which goes beyond the dangerous machinations of legacy political economics.
“Tools and apps will continue to be driven by user needs, innovation, creativity, and consumerism. They will foster difficult, reactionary, and disruptive changes throughout the world if not developed in concert with humane approaches to our complex needs for better resource distribution, health and well being, sustaining energy strategies, and economic valuation based on the little bit we know about our place in the world which goes beyond the dangerous machinations of legacy political economics. 鈥
“Where is the app that allows us to simply view the slowly rotating earth from space?
“Where are leaders calling for simulation systems that allow us to view and run scenarios for improved local decision-support?
“鈥榃here is the knowledge we have lost in information鈥 (T.S. Eliot)?鈥
Methodology
Respondents to the Future of the Internet V survey, fielded from August 28 to October 31, 2011, were asked to consider the future of the Internet-connected world between now and 2020. They were asked to assess eight different 鈥渢ension pairs鈥 鈥 each pair offering two different scenarios that might emerge by 2020 with the same overall subject themes and opposite outcomes. They were asked to select the most likely choice between the two statements. The tension pairs and their alternative outcomes were constructed to reflect emerging debates about the impact of the Internet. The tension pair options distill statements made by pundits, scholars and technology analysts about the likely evolution of the Internet. They were reviewed and edited by the Pew Internet Advisory Board.
The survey results are based on a non-random online sample of 1,021 Internet experts and other Internet users, recruited via email invitation, conference invitation, or link shared on Twitter, Google Plus or Facebook by 51爆料网’s Imagining the Internet Center and the Pew Research Center鈥檚 Internet & American Life Project.
Since the data are based on a non-random sample, a margin of error cannot be computed, and the results are not projectable to any population other than the people participating in this sample. The study is a “snapshot” capture of people’s opinions today about what might take place tomorrow knowing what is known now. This helps illuminate issues and concerns and raises the need to address them.
Survey participants were asked to choose one of the two provided scenarios and then explain that choice. Respondents were invited to explain their answers and it is their narrative elaborations that provide the core of our reports.
While most people agreed with the statement that the Web will generally be stronger than ever by 2020, many who chose that view noted that it is more their hope than their firm prediction, 35% disagreed, and a number of survey participants said the true outcome will be a combination of both scenarios. The survey questions are written to generate detailed written responses, not to arrive any clear-cut statistical outcome, so respondent choices are not a representative measure, but…
59% agreed with the statement:
“In 2020, the World Wide Web is stronger than ever in users’ lives. The open Web continues to thrive and grow as a vibrant place where most people do most of their work, play, communication, and content creation. Apps accessed through iPads, Kindles, Nooks, smartphones, Droid devices, and their progeny鈥攖he online tools GigaOM referred to as “the anti-Internet”鈥攚ill be useful as specialized options for a finite number of information and entertainment functions. There will be a widespread belief that, compared to apps, the Web is more important and useful and is the dominant factor in people’s lives.”
35% agreed with the statement:
“In 2020, most people will prefer to use specific applications (apps) accessible by Internet connection to accomplish most online work, play, communication, and content creation. The ease of use and perceived security and quality-assurance characteristics of apps will be seen as superior when compared with the open Web. Most industry innovation and activity will be devoted to apps development and updates, and use of apps will occupy the majority of technology users’ time. There will be a widespread belief that the World Wide Web is less important and useful than in the past and apps are the dominant factor in people’s lives.”
>> Click here to return to the 2012 Future of the Internet survey home page
A selection of quote excerpts from the thousands of predictions about the evolution of apps and the Web and the impact of people’s uses of the Internet by 2020:
鈥淚nstead of couch potatoes you鈥檒l have app-potatoes.鈥 鈥撀Giacomo Mazzone, head of institutional relations for the European Broadcasting Union
鈥淓ase of use always wins.鈥 鈥撀Fred Hapgood, technology author and consultant
鈥淭he browser鈥攐r its future equivalent鈥攚ill continue to have key advantages over apps 鈥ublishers have dreamed that apps would return to them the control of content, experience, business model and pricing that the Net took from them, but they are merely deluding themselves.鈥 鈥聽Jeff Jarvis, professor, speaker, and author of聽What Would Google Do?
鈥淭he rise of cloud computing infrastructure means that apps will have comparable processing power and capability as traditional Web applications, and in many cases will be superior to our conception of today鈥檚 Web.鈥 鈥聽Jeffrey Alexander, senior technology analyst at SRI International
鈥淥nce HTML5 browsers and fully capable Web runtimes are in place on the common Kindle through iPhone, the Web app will begin replacing native apps.鈥 鈥撀Rob Scott, chief technology officer for Nokia
鈥淭he World Wide Web may evolve significantly, but the core design of open and scalable will make it the compelling solution.鈥 鈥撀Robert Cannon, senior counsel for Internet law for the FCC
鈥淭he apps model as developed by Amazon, Apple, Google, and the like is another form of the walled garden made notorious by AOL鈥 have to admit the 鈥榦pen鈥 Web is certainly changing鈥攋ust ask the 750 million people on the anti-Web, also known as Facebook.鈥 鈥撀燚avid Ellis, director of communication studies at York University
鈥淭he world is moving away from open protocols where anyone can play to proprietary, more easily monetizable services.鈥 鈥撀Brian Trammell, researcher, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology
鈥淭here will always be a Web, but it may end up like the imagery of a person standing on a soapbox, referred to more for its romantic symbolism than mattering in reality.鈥 鈥撀Seth Finkelstein, programmer and consultant
鈥淭he Web is about discovery and serendipity, it鈥檚 about finding something you weren鈥檛 looking for; to lose that would be to take a step back in our progress as intellectual humans, the equivalent of burning a digital book.鈥 鈥聽Richard Titus, venture capitalist, Octavian Ventures
鈥淧latform companies will push a great deal into their infrastructure and app developers will be able to push much higher into ultrastructure, providing a much richer user experience via post-browser-Web apps.鈥 鈥撀Stowe Boyd, consultant and author
鈥淎pps are a great intermediate play, a way to scale up functionality of a primitive Web, but over time, they get outcompeted for all but the most complex platforms, by simpler and more standardized alternatives.鈥 鈥聽John Smart, futurist and founder of the Acceleration Studies Foundation
鈥淭he gated bubble worlds formed by app markets, Facebook and other private spaces will bloom and fade, while people will keep gathering in the open spaces.鈥 鈥撀Jerry Michalski, founder of Relationship Economy Expedition and consultant at the Institute for the Future
鈥淭he ability of the Net to accommodate unlimited diversity will continue and therefore there will be an open Web, never fully open because there are many competing forces, but diversified and fast-moving, as a reflection of human society鈥檚 restless character.鈥 鈥撀Allison Mankin, computer-networking expert formerly with the National Science Foundation
鈥淭he 鈥榃orld Wide Web鈥 will be a term no longer used. Perhaps we will use a simple term meaning connected or not. Connectivity = life.鈥 鈥聽Amber Case, CEO of Geoloqi
The following comments are from respondents who chose to remain anonymous:
鈥淭he open Web will continue to be where the action is long after my iPad has become a coaster.鈥
鈥淯sers welcome trusted intermediaries provided they feel they are getting maximum choice and good value. Well-designed apps will emerge to accommodate user-generated content and make it much easier to find and use. Apps will also create a more efficient marketplace through which creators can harvest value for their innovations, far more easily than the repeated, failed efforts to monetize 鈥榃eb content.鈥 Apps Store providers can ensure that apps are bandwidth-efficient, that they protect consumer privacy, that their provenance can be more readily known to potential users, etc.鈥
鈥淭he Web is the ocean. Apps are islands. Water and islands co-exist. Some people prefer to swim, sail, and explore. Others prefer to sunbathe, settle, and, on occasion, island hop. Most people do a mixture of both. This will become more streamlined over time, but I don鈥檛 think of the apps/Web question as a battle with one winner.鈥
鈥淧eople don鈥檛 understand how the Internet works now, and apps minimize the problems inherent with viruses, poor functionality, and malware. Apps will continue to proliferate, especially as mobile phones are increasingly used to access the Internet. It is not that the Web will be unimportant; it will just become part of the underlying technological framework that users acknowledge but do not understand.鈥
鈥淲e will see an 鈥榓pp-ification鈥 of the Web itself, something we鈥檙e already witnessing, as people鈥檚 use of the open Web goes far beyond information retrieval on 鈥榮ites.鈥 Browsers, design and coding techniques have already made 鈥榃eb apps鈥 a common thing. There will probably be less of a gap between the capabilities and behavior of 鈥榥ative apps鈥 and 鈥榃eb apps鈥 in the not-too-distant future.鈥
鈥淭he future will depend on how powerful the oligopoly will be in creating a stratified system wherein the Web is deemed low-class and is therefore underfunded and slowed via corporate and regulatory connivance.鈥
鈥淎uthorities will, piece-by-piece, eliminate the free Web through regulation, licensing and firewalls that respect country borders. The Web will be more like cable TV via apps; everything will be either pay-as-you-go or advertising-supported.鈥
鈥淭he very notion of 鈥榓pps鈥 vs. 鈥榃eb鈥 misses the point of changes in infrastructure that are rather closer on the horizon. This does not even take into account two extraordinarily important things: 1) The majority of the world accesses network communications via a mobile phone (and though network access is patchy at best, apps in this case are far more efficient) and 2) apps and Web are becoming very much interconnected with cloud. It is the cloud that is poised to change how things are done for work, play, and communication and apps and Web will provide interfaces.鈥
鈥淭he Web will be increasingly seen by content providers as a more lucrative place to develop applications (rather than a specific piece of hardware or software). Developers will rather create one Web or cloud-based program that works on everything, rather than several different applications. As companies like Apple control their app stores with iron fists, we鈥檒l see software developers exploiting new Web technology to reach the widest audience and prevent a middle-person from skimming a percentage of profits.鈥
鈥淎pps are a passing fad generated by the Apple marketing machine and the artificial constraints imposed by its business model. There鈥檚 no reason the open Web will not come to provide the same benefits that people get from apps, while still holding on to its own strengths.鈥
鈥淭he Web will be so vital by 2020 people will take it for granted. The average citizen born after 1995 won鈥檛 be able to imagine a world without the Web any more than the average citizen born after 1950 could imagine a world without trucks.鈥